With new Renault Espace, the minivan is finally dead. Or is it?

When Renault reimagined the Espace as an SUV after five model generations as a minivan, it was an acknowledgement that a once-iconic segment had truly run its course. 

Minivans -- compact and midsize -- have been declining in popularity since the early 2010s, replaced by crossovers and SUVs, as well as small passenger vans with more and more features. Dataforce, which tracks sales by model and segment, no longer has a minivan category, but instead combines passenger van versions of light-commercial vans with the few remaining minivans on the market. 

The first-generation Espace, developed from the Matra P23 prototype, was the first minivan in Europe when it was launched in 1984. (Chrysler Corp.’s minivans, the Dodge Caravan and Plymouth Voyager, were launched in the U.S. nearly concurrently.) The Espace featured plastic composite body panels and seven seats that could be arranged like a living room, with the front seats able to swivel, and was just 4250 mm long.

Not long ago, every mainstream automaker offered not just one, but several minivans, much as they do with SUVs today. Renault, for its part, once offered the small Modus, the compact Scenic and Grand Scenic, and the midsize Espace, while Ford sold the B-Max, C-Max, S-Max and Galaxy.

Many of the Espace’s competitors over the years have been phased out, or their nameplates transferred to crossovers or SUVs. 

In the midsize category, where the current Espace competes, there were just three true minivans in the top 10 in 2022: The Ford S-Max, in seventh place, with 7,804 sales; the Seat Alhambra, in eighth place, with 5,988 sales; and the Ford Galaxy -- which rides on the same platform as the S-Max -- in ninth place, with 5,636 sales. 

In the compact category, there are also just three purpose-designed minivans, the Volkswagen Touran (second, with 21,876 sales), Citroen C4 SpaceTourer (11,081) and Renault Scenic (9,473). 

"Minivans are considered old fashioned," said Benjamin Kibies, senior automotive analyst at Dataforce. Automakers, who are facing increased costs in the transition to electrification, are reducing their model diversity, he said.

"Buyers who prefer more functional aspects can still opt for passenger car models that are derived from commercial vehicles such as a Citroen Berlingo or the larger VW Transporter," Kibies added.

By the end of 2023, Dataforce expects nearly all traditional minivan models to be off the market, with the exception of two premium compact models, the BMW 2-Series Active Tourer and Mercedes-Benz B-Class.

Among recent and coming casualties: The Citroen C4 SpaceTourer ended production in the third quarter of 2022, with the Seat Alhambra and VW Sharan halting at the end of 2022. The Galaxy and S-Max will exit at the end of the first quarter of 2023. The compact Fiat 500L will also reach the end of its life cycle this year.

The two passenger van segments are small. There were 171,936 compact vans sold in 2022, compared with 1,613,126 compact crossovers/SUVs, according to figures from Dataforce. The midsize/large van segment is somewhat larger, with 197,862 sales, compared with 557,943 midsize/large crossovers/SUVs.

However, in the compact segment, consumers' options are limited to mostly full-electric vans from Stellantis brands Citroen, Fiat, Opel/Vauxhall and Peugeot, as well as combustion-engine or full-electric vans from Renault and Volkswagen.

But that is not to say that the traditional minivan is definitively dead forever. In addition to changing tastes, their weight and blunt profiles made it increasingly hard to meet emissions regulations with diesel or gasoline engines. Electrification could offer an emissions lifeline, as it has for midsize SUVs. 

One new model, in fact, could offer a template for the rebirth of the minivan: The VW ID Buzz, a full-electric homage to the classic VW Kombi (or Bus, in the U.S.), complete with sliding doors.